Monthly Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives
(31 July 2026)
Highlights
Monitored:
In July, the northern and central islands received 10 – 12 mm of average rainfall and the remaining islands received less. the highest daily rainfall was in the central and southern regions on 30 July with a peak of 80 mm. Sea surface temperature (SST) around the Maldives remain seasonable and 1.50C above-normal around the Arabian Sea.
Predictions:
El Niño conditions have developed into a strong condition by July and will continue to intensify into a very strong El Niño by December 2026 – February 2027. From September-November, the central and southern islands are expected to receive above normal rainfall with 70% and 50%
likelihood respectively due to the El Niño influence. However, southern islands are expected to receive below normal rainfall with 50% likelihood.
Monitoring
Prediction
